This post offers a framework for thinking about the effect of tariffs on major asset class returns by estimating asset classes’ response to supply shocks. This blog uses a Phillips curve approach to ...

I use Phillips curve type regressions to assess the relative contributions of demand and supply forces to U.S. inflation during the pandemic era from February 2020 onward and the decade following the ...

Log-in to bookmark & organize content - it's free! Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and former Chair Ben Bernanke discussed monetary policy, inflation, and the economy. Here they address the ...

A loosening labour market acts as a gravitational force on prices. Wage pressure fades, consumption becomes selective and ...

In an increasingly digital environment where data and advanced analytics challenge traditional economic modeling, the Bank of England is applying a fusion of machine learning (ML) with economic theory ...

This paper examines the challenges of formulating monetary policy in the face of heightened uncertainty. We develop a framework to assess the optimal monetary policy path under uncertainty, focusing ...

Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on ...